In 21Q2, affected by the epidemic in Southeast Asia, global smartphone shipments show a downward trend compared to the previous quarter. However, due to the low base in the same period last year, there is still a YoY growth trend. According to Sigmaintell survey data, global smartphone shipments in the first half of 2021 are approximately 640 million, an increase of approximately 19.0% YoY, of which global smartphone shipments in 21Q2 are approximately 300 million, an increase of about 10.9% YoY. From a sub-regional perspective, the overseas market (excluding mainland China) ship approximately 220 million units in 21Q2, an increase of about 25.6% YoY. The recovery trend is obvious. However, the mainland China market lacks the motivation to replace aircraft. The cargo volume is approximately 79 million units, a decrease of about 16.4% YoY.
Revenue and the rate of display assemblies continued to increase, and shipments of automotive screens of before market increase by approximately 17% YoY
According to Sigmaintell’s data, global LCD TV panel shipment volume in the first half of 2021 was 131.5M, an increase of 3.8% based on YoY, and the shipment area increased by 11.4% YoY. The imbalance in the supply-demand relationship and the strategies adjustment from panel maker have driven panel prices to continue to rise, LCD TV panels have entered a highly profitable operating cycle. Based on these, panel makers become active in their expansion plans for existing capacity.
According to Sigmaintell’s data, global LCD TV panel shipment volume in the first half of 2021 was 131.5M, an increase of 3.8% based on YoY, and the shipment area increased by 11.4% YoY.
The capacity of high-pixel products has gradually increased, and product prices have further dropped due to factors such as cost dilution and channel inventory squeeze. It is expected that the price of high-pixel products will have a 6-8% drop in 21Q3.
For details, please refer to “Strong demand in 21Q1, and single-season shipments achieve a record high: Summary and outlook of the global smartphone panel market in 21Q1”. At the same time, it is expected that the global penetration rate of OLED smartphone panels will exceed 45% in 2023 (TLCM).
Entering the end of the second quarter, on the demand side, the Chinese market continues to be weak, the sales scale of the "6.18" promotion season drops by more than 20% based on YoY
On the demand side, the current demand is also declining. Sigmaintell expects that the overall price of tablet will show a steady trend in June. On the supply side, the supply of 10.1" WXGA will increase, and low-price competition will appear.
32", the demand for small size has gradually declined, and the price increases by US$2 in May. The price is expected to stop rising and stabilize in June.
The relationship between supply and demand is the fundamental factor that affecting price fluctuations. According to Sigmaintell's "supply and demand model" calculations, the global LCD TV panel market has continued to be in short supply since 20Q3, which has driven panel prices to continue to rise. Since the start of the rise in June 2020, LCD TV panel prices have ushered in the longest and largest rise cycle. Among them, the cumulative increase of 32" is as high as 1.5 times, the prices of 43", 50", and 55" have all doubled, and the prices of large sizes such as 65" and 75" have also increased by 30-60%.
Affected by the coronavirus, consumption at home in 2020 has increased the use frequency and duration of PC products. The new rigid demand for consumers to purchase and replace notebooks has pushed up the market. According to Sigmaintell's "Monthly Tracking Analysis Report on Chinese Notebook Online Market", the online notebook market sales are close to 15 million units in 2020, with sales exceeding 80 billion yuan, increased by 32% YOY.
China has the fastest growth rate. Chinese medical equipment industry scale reached US$90 billion in 2019, an increase of 18% YOY. Also due to the epidemic, the growth rate of the medical equipment industry rose to 27%. This figure not only reflects the large increase in demand for medical equipment, but also explains the export volume is higher than before.
In 2020, global smartphone panel shipments reached 1.89 billion pieces, YOY 6%
According to Sigmaintell's data tracking, global smartphone panel shipments totaled 1.89 billion (open cell) in 2020, YOY 6%. In terms of quarters, the largest increase was in 20Q4, when global smartphone panel shipments totaled 570 million (open cell), YOY 17%.
According to Sigmaintell’s data, it is predicted that the price of 2M camera modules will increase by about 6.5% at the end of 21Q1 (March), and it will show a trend of flat growth with stable demand in 21Q2.
According to Sigmaintell's data, global monitor panel shipments reach 162 million pieces in 2020, a YOY increase of 12.9%. On the Internet + epidemic era, digitization quickly penetrates into every scene of people’s life, study and work, and PC demand has become a new rigid demand. This change will become a new potential for the development of the global monitor market in 2021. With this potential, the upgrade and differentiation of the panel market will also be demonstrated at the same time.
In 2020, China monitor market has experienced ups and downs of "the first decline and then rise". As Sigmaintell predicted in the first quarter, both the consumer market and the commercial market achieved positive growth in the fourth quarter. The "V" shape in the consumer market rebounded, and the "U shape" in the commercial market reset. On an annual scale, the total shipment scale of China monitor market is approximately 34.5 million units, a YOY increase of 2.4%.
Driven by the housing economy and active overseas fiscal policies, overseas market demand has a retaliatory rebound in the second half of the year, and it drive the shipments and area of global LCD TV panel to show a clear "V"-shaped reversal. The year-on-year decline in shipments has significantly narrowed in 20Q3, while the shipment area has a substantial increase. According to Sigmaintell's data, global LCD TV panel shipments in 2020 are 266 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and the shipment area reaches 163 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Shipments were weak in the first half of the year and recovered strongly in the second half.
According to Sigmaintell investigation in Jan., global smartphone shipment in 20Q4 was around 371 million and made a YoY 1.3% growth. Among them, under iPhone 12 series performance well, Apple had a best 85.5 million shipments and around 23.0% market share leading market. Due to fierce completion and components shortage, galaxy SEC shipped around 62.2 million in 20Q4 and accounted for around 16.7% MS, YoY down around 1.2 points. Xiaomi ranked the third in line with 43.3 million shipments in 20Q4, even though Xiaomi got impaction by soc shortage in 20Q4. Oppo and Vivo were following the ranking performance. Just Huawei was out of TOP5 with 32.1 million shipments due to the USA ban.
In terms of large size, manufacturers' stocking demand and supply continue to be tight, and the average price is expected to maintain an increase of about US$5 in January.
The overall market is relatively turbulent at this stage, and the price of mobile phone panels is relatively chaotic. There are many factors affecting prices. For the supply side, the price of individual components upstream of some technologies has risen, and the cost of panel BOM has risen.
