Under a background of the sluggish TV markets around the world in 191H, the global OEM market showed a more depressed performance. According to Sigmaintell’s statistical data, the total shipment of the top 16 TV OEM manufacturers was 39.24 million globally in 191H, by the YoY and QoQ declines of 8.9% and 24.3% respectively. From the perspective of various areas’ shipment performance, the market demand was sluggish in China market but active in overseas markets, especially Europe, Middle East, Africa, and North America.
The Global Smartphone Panel Market Remained Sluggish in 1H 2019, with a 5.2% YoY Shipment Decline
Under a background of intensified inter-regional trade frictions in the world and political instability, the global economic recovery weakens further. According to the latest prediction of IMF on the global economic growth, after times of reductions of global economic growth expectation in 2019, it's expected that the growth would only be increased by 3.2%, which shows a significant slowing.
As for the monitor panel shipment, after a moderate decline in Q2, it was still on the declining trend in Q2. According to Sigmaintell's statistical data, on a YoY basis, the shipment dropped by 2.5% in Q1 and 6.4% in Q2. Overall, for the first half of 2019, the total shipment of global monitor panel market was 69.383 million, with a 4.4% YoY decline; the shipment area decreased by 0.7%.Date:2019-08-01 Source:Sigmaintell
Early in 2012, based on measurement and calculation, Sigmaintell proposed a theory of “if the average panel size increases one inch per year, the sales volume shall be equal to the production capacity of an 8.5G line on the premise of the product number remain unchanged”. This rule of “large-size strategy can absorb production capacity and maintain the industry’s virtuous development” continues to this day. According to Sigmaintell’s data, in those years when the average panel size was on a significant increasing, the supply and demand ratio slid, the panel prices and panel manufacturers’ profit margin increased. As Sigmaintell’s prediction, TV panel’s average size would have the possibility to increase 1.4 inches in 2019, globally.
Generally, the third quarter is considered as the peak season of a year. However, considering suppliers’ inventory pressure, Sigmaintell predicts that, in Q3 2019, the prices of Notebook panels would drop slightly or be stable. In July, the average price has reduced for no more than USD 0.1, and it’s expected to decrease for still less than USD 0.1.
Both operation and profiting of makers are facing severe challenges. The global TV panel industry is facing unprecedented difficulties.
12.2% YoY Growth of TV Panel Capacity
In terms of large size, demand growth of end products continued to be lower than supply growth. From June to July, the price of 65" fell sharply. It is expected that the decline in August will be narrowed to less than $5.
32", the price drop in June is large, and it is expected to fall slightly by 1 dollar in July.
The market demand for Notebook panel had recovered at the end of the second quarter, the shortage of Intel CPU was eased. According to Sigmaintell’s prediction, the average Notebook panel price is likely to decrease by 0.1 USD in June and to be relative stable until July.
The escalation of trade friction has made the demand for export continued unclear, and the 6.18 off-season is less than expected, and brand manufacturers are facing the pressure of destocking. The above two factors have aggravated the pessimistic expectation of the LCD TV panel market.
China Shall Be One of The Most Potential Markets Thanks to The Both Demands for Device Popularization and Upgrading.Europe as the second largest one, its medical devices occupies about 30% of the global market, where Germany and France are the two main producers.
The overall market for mobile phones continued to decline. According to Sigmaintell's data, the shipments of mobile phone panels in the whole year of 2019 fell by about 4.5 percentage points Y-o-Y. In the overall economic downturn, the price of mobile phone panels lacks growth momentum and prices continue to decline.
The main brand inventory is still higher than average in March, and the demand of display panel is still weak because of the labor lack after the Chinese Spring Festival. Panel manufactures began to adjust the allocation of supply and production capacity. Some of the panel manufactures decreased the capacity allocation of monitor and increased the capacity allocation of TV in the 6th generation to the 8.5th generation. In general, except the productions of 23.6'', the decreasing amplitude of productions of 23.8'' and below has narrowed, while the decreasing amplitude of jumbo size productions is still high. Sigmaintell predicts that with the beginning of preparation for Chinese 6•18 shopping festival, the decreasing amplitude of small and medium size will narrow, the price of Opencell will gradually stop falling, but the productionswith jumbo size and high-resolution will continuously decrease.
The analysis of main size is as follows:
1. 21.5'', the demand of B2B market is weak, so the price will continue to fall. We predict that the average price of module in March will decrease $0.5, and the decreasing amplitude in April will narrow to $0.2. In Opencell, due to the supply adjustment of some panel manufactures and the high drop range in earlier days, it is predicted that the price will stop falling in March, and remain flat in April.
2. 23.8'', while the general demand of medium size productions gathers to productions of 23.8'', the shipment of latter ones in 2019 is predicted to be over those of 21.5''. At the same time, the average price of module will decrease $0.5 in March, and $0.4 in April; the average price of OC will decrease a little, about $0.2, and stop falling in April.
3. 27'', the market is still oversupplied, and panel manufacturers will gradually transfer their focus to high-resolution productions. It is predicted that the average price of IPS FHD module will decrease about $0.7 in March and maintain the same amplitude in April.
The market demand in the first quarter continues to be low while the inventory of those brand factories is still high. The shortage of Intel CPU has a great influence towards the stock of brand factories. Those brands reduce their demand, which means the panel manufactures should adjust the capacity allocation to reply it. Sigmaintell predicts that the average price of Notebook panel will decrease $0.3 to $0.4 in March, and $0.2 to $0.3 in April.
Ultra-size market accelerates its development since 2018, according to Report on Global TV Manufacturer Shipment and Supply Chain given by Sigmaintell, the global shipment of 70” and over TV in 2018 is 3.41 million sets with a year-on-year growth of 58.3%. As for ultra-size products, in spite of 86” in IWB market, 70”, 75”,82”and 85” all stand up to others as an equal.
In 2018, the shipment of global fingerprint chip declined by 18.8% year-on-year.
The report of Sigmaintell, Global Smartphone and Fingerprint Market Tracking & Forecast Report, shows that due to the overall demand of terminal’s decline and the competition of 3D facial recognition, the shipment of fingerprint chip is about 879 million, with 18.8% year-on-year decline.Date:2019-03-19 Source:Sigmaintell
After the Spring Festival, the demand for brand stocking has warmed up, although on the one hand it is affected by the reduction in inventory, on the other hand, affected by the CPT event, the a-Si market price wants to rise.
On the demand side, for one thing, the inventory of brand manufacturers is still high, for another the mass production time of the Intel processor’s 10 nanometer process is uncertain, CPU shortage continues affecting the product structure of brand manufactories, so the stock of brand manufactories is conservative, and overall demand continues declining slightly. Sigmaintell predicts that the average price of notebook panels falls by $0.3 to $0.4 in February, and that the average price of notebook panels will maintain the same range of decline in March.
Global Vehicle sales declined year on year in 2018 due to the weakening environment
Influenced by factors such as trade protection and economic downturn, preliminary statistics of Sigmaintell shows that the global Vehicle sales volume in 2018 was about 95.3 million units, declined by 0.4% year on year. With the impact of weak global industry environment and the declining consumer confidence, global Vehicle sales are expected to remain basically unbiased in 2019.
According to the calculation based on “supply and demand model” of Sigmaintell, The global TV panel market was structurally unbalanced in the first quarter.Affected by the sharp adjustment of the previous price, the small and medium-sized prices gradually bottomed out. It is expected that the price will rise slightly in March. The large-scale production capacity will continue to increase, and the demand in the off-season will not be strong, and the price will continue to fall. The performance analysis of each size is as follows: